Several people have been asking me what to expect tomorrow(Wednesday) in West Alabama, given the recent destruction in Dallas/Ft. Worth and other areas of Texas. Unfortunately, tomorrow is going to be a "wait and see" kind of day. A lot of factors will play into whether or not severe weather has the necessary ingredients to form in West Alabama.
INGREDIENTS NEEDED:
1. Instability- It needs to rain a good bit this afternoon, followed by the sun coming out to heat the ground. This will feed the instability, which ultimately feeds the storms.
2. Moisture- Typically in a healthy storm system the Gulf of Mexico will cycle in moisture into our area.
3. Shear- Commonly noticed as wind. But there are more things that play into shear than just wind. Low level shear, upper atmosphere shear, etc.
4. Lifting- Tornadoes require lifting mechanisms to take the low level (ground level) winds up into the atmosphere.
Now, that being said, you don't need ALL of those ingredients present to have a tornado, but the more you have, the healthier the storm.
As far as tomorrow goes, I do NOT foresee most of those key players involved in West Alabama tomorrow. The moisture will be here, the instability will be rather marginal at best, shear won't be too impressive, and lifting will be limited if not nonexistent. SO, yes, you can expect scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in and around West Alabama tomorrow afternoon/evening/ and in the overnight hours going into Thursday, BUT, the chance for tornadoes will be low. Does that mean that tornadoes will not happen? Absolutely not. As I mentioned, Wednesday will be a "wait and see" day.
Often times people will dismiss Severe Thunderstorm Warnings as unimportant and not dangerous, but that in itself is a dangerous habit. Severe Thunderstorms carry wind and hail capable of causing damage to structures, and even short lived tornadoes that may go undetected on radar, thus lacking a Tornado Warning. Please take these warnings and watches serious.
TORNADO/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
This means conditions are favorable for the development of Tornadoes/Severe Thunderstorms. Prepare to seek shelter and go into your emergency action plan.
TORNADO/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
This means that areas listed within the warning are considered to be in imminent danger from a storm that has either been confirmed on the ground or is showing signs of rotation capable of producing a tornado/ OR wind speeds and hail has been reported or is believed to be occurring with this storm warranting a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING. Both should be taken seriously. When you receive the warning, be sure to head to a small, interior room on the lowest floor of your home/building away from any windows. Make sure you have your phone and a radio to receive emergency weather information. DO NOT LEAVE YOUR SHELTER UNTIL YOU HERE THE ALL CLEAR OVER THE RADIO.
Even though tomorrow's chances for severe weather are marginal, you should keep an eye on the weather all day. Follow us on Twitter or go like our Facebook page to receive updates. The time to prepare is NOW, not when severe weather threatens.
Some of our Storm Chasers will be heading West towards the Mississippi River Delta to ride the storms into Alabama. We will be bringing you updates from the field. Our Storm Chaser Twitter account can be found here.
Godspeed.
PAR
