I’m still chasing out in the plains and as a few of you may know Thursday was kinda a rough day… The outlook was promising today over most of central and northern Kansas and some sections of southwestern Oklahoma. We started out the day in extreme northern OK because the models indicated that all the parameters needed for the formation of severe storms and tornadoes were more significant in Kansas. Just after lunch some convection started just north of the KS OK border and quickly dissipated. Soon after that some very strong cells formed in western OK, so we decided to go after those and try and meet up with Reed Timmer and the Discovery Channel crew. Once we made it to the OK cells they began to die as well. At the same time storms began to form and sustain themselves in central and northern KS. We tried to jet back up to KS but the storms were flying at 90 mph. We decided to stay to the west and wait for more storms to fire across the dry line. Once a few cells formed at the dry line we got into position and thought we had a legitimate chance to see some tornadoes. There was lots of scud clouds and some really strong updraft. Sadly to say, the storms became outflow dominant and they began to slowly weaken. Today was a real disappointment and the moral of our crew took a little bit of a hit but we’re ready to bounce back tomorrow and meet up with Reed and the Dominator. Below is the outlook for Friday:
As many of you may know the world is supposed to end on the 21st. I'll still be chasing that day so maybe I'll be able to come up with some good video...
Anyways, here’s the SPC’s outlook for Friday.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH A
PORTION OF THE MID MS VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED UPPER LOWS OVER THE WRN STATES AND NERN U.S. ASSOCIATED WITH
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWD FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF WRN U.S. UPPER LOW WILL
EJECT THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAIN AND MID MS VALLEY
REGION...WHILE A PACIFIC FRONT ADVANCES SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
AND SRN PLAINS.
...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY...
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WRN TX THROUGH WRN OK EARLY
FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FRONT AND DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT ROTATING
THROUGH ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW OVERTAKE DRYLINE. ACTIVITY WILL
GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AND CONTINUE EWD THROUGH WARM
SECTOR DURING THE DAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES DECREASE
WITH ERN EXTENT TOWARD THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...AT LEAST A
MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL SHOULD PERSIST AS THESE STORMS DEVELOP EWD.
GIVEN DEVELOPMENT OF EARLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS REGARDING DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IN WAKE OF MORNING
STORMS...BUT SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO
DESTABILIZE FARTHER WEST IN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM W-CNTRL TX NWD
THROUGH WRN/CNTRL OK AND KS. NEW STORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG PACIFIC
FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX EJECTING THROUGH UPPER TROUGH BASE
OVERSPREADS INSTABILITY AXIS. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT 40-45
KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE
MAIN THREATS. THOUGH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...SMALL LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT.
...NERN STATES...
STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE NERN STATES WHERE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...POCKETS OF
DIABATIC WARMING AND MID 50S DEWPOINTS WILL PROMOTE MARGINAL MLCAPE.
A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.
..DIAL/GARNER.. 05/20/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Here's some pics I got of some wall clouds and Super Cells:
Until next time,
Sub Divo
Frank Mullens
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